Is WPX Overvalued Due To Risk Of Argentinian Seizure?

The big news out of South America this week is that on Monday, the government of Argentina pulled a Chavez and nationalized YPF, its largest oil and gas company. YPF had been majority owned by Spain’s Repsol (look at that Euro clout). The Argentinian government appears increasingly less investor friendly and now it looks like the energy industry, an area of “national public interest”, is right in its crosshairs. This could be a problem for WPX Energy (WPX), the recent spin out of Williams. As we noted in our earlier posts, in addition to its shale assets in the US, the company also has a 69% ownership stake in Apco Oil & Gas International (APAGF) which operates mainly in…you guessed it Argentina. According to its recent 10-K, the company also “hold[s] additional international assets in northwest Argentina that are not part of Apco’s holdings.”

Both YPF and Repsol were obviously crushed on the news, but the entire Argentinian market has been suffering as well. Here is a table examining Apco’s recent performance looking at the Friday close prior to Ms. Kirchner’s Monday announcement:

Company Name Shares Outst. (M) 4/13 Share Price ($) 4/13 Market Cap (M) Current Price ($) Current Market Cap (M)
Apco Oil & Gas International Inc. 29.4 51.5 1,516.22 42.7 1,237.42
WPX Energy, Inc. 198.6 16.0 3,168.12 15.6 3,086.68

 

Not surprisingly, Apco has taken a nice hit to its value, losing about 20%. However, it doesn’t look like WPX’s shares have responded in kind:

Apco Market Cap Loss (M) 278.8
WPX 69% Stake (M) 192.4
WPX Actual Lost MC (M) 81.4

The discrepancy isn’t all the great (maybe another -3.5% of value), but the possibility that Apco is a complete zero or highly overvalued cannot be ignored anymore. Now this doesn’t mean anything in and of itself as other things affect WPX’s value and WPX shares might have already been heavily discounting its Apco stake, which is still worth ~$853m. It’s worth noting that Apco currently represents only a very small amount of WPX’s reserves and revenues and WPX really seems to view itself as a domestic producer. This could also become a significant distraction for management which would also hurt the company.

I hope to dig into WPX a bit more in the coming days to come up with some type of valuation and see if something can be constructed here (on either side or maybe a stub) – with a quick glance maybe the Apco stake is even being discounted too much? What do you think?

Disclosure: Author currently holds no position in any stock mentioned.

Newborn WPX Energy Announces Board Of Directors

WPX Energy(WPX) which was spun off from Williams(WMB) at the beginning of the month, has announced its Board Of Directors. The company which has 1.6 million acres under lease, appointed 9 Directors to join Chairman William G. Lowrie.  The press release provides the following biographical data for the Directors:

       Kimberly S. Bowers is the executive vice president and general counsel for Valero Energy Corporation, with responsibility for Valero’s legal, ad valorem tax, health, safety and environmental, energy and gases, reliability, and project execution departments.

John A. Carrig is the former President and Chief Operating Officer of ConocoPhillips, where he was responsible for global operations, including exploration and production, refining and transportation, project development and procurement, and health, safety and environmental matters.

William R. Granberry is a member of Compass Operating Company LLC, a small, private oil and gas exploration, development and producing company. From 1996 to 1999, Mr. Granberry was president and chief operating officer of Tom Brown, Inc., a public oil and gas company. Overall, he has 44 years of experience in the oil and gas industry.

Don J. Gunther is the former Vice Chairman and Director of the Bechtel Group, Inc., where he spent his entire 39-year career before retiring. Bechtel is an engineering, construction and project management company. As Vice Chairman, Mr. Gunther had responsibility for all of the global industry units and for all corporate functions.

Robert K. Herdman is a managing director of Kalorama Partners LLC, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm specializing in advice on corporate governance, risk assessment, crisis management and related matters. Prior to joining Kalorama, Mr. Herdman was the chief accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission from October 2001 to November 2002.

Ralph A. Hill is the WPX Energy CEO. He has more than 30 years of energy experience – all with divisions of Williams prior to the WPX spinoff. At Williams, he led the evolution and development of the company’s exploration and production business which became WPX. He also serves as the chairman and CEO of Apco Oil and Gas International (NASDAQ:APAGF).

Henry E. Lentz retired from the investment banking firm Lazard Frères & Co., where he was a managing director. Over his career, he was associated with Lehman Brothers Inc. for more than 30 years in both leadership and advisory roles, including serving as head of the firm’s worldwide energy practice.

George A. Lorch is Chairman Emeritus of Armstrong Holdings, Inc., the holding company for a manufacturer and marketer of floors, ceilings and cabinets. Mr. Lorch had 37 years of sales and marketing experience at Armstrong, including 17 years of experience as a head of operations, with responsibility for profit and loss statements, balance sheets and stockholder relations.

William G. Lowrie retired as deputy chief executive officer and director of BP Amoco PLC where he spent his entire 33-year career developing expertise in drilling, reservoir engineering and financial analysis. He also managed hydrocarbon hedging functions, environmental health and safety program design, and a process for managing capital investments during his tenure.

David F. Work retired from BP Amoco as a regional president, where his responsibilities included coordinating the company’s seven exploration and production business units, as well as the leaders of the gas, power, oil and chemical businesses. He also had been a group vice president in exploration and production and a member of its executive committee.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

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WPX Energy Begins Trading Today As Independent Company

WPX Energy(WPX) began trading regular way today following its spin off from Williams(WMB). The company issued a press release to mark the occasion

        Shares of WPX Energy will begin trading “regular way” on the New York Stock Exchange today following a successful spinoff from Williams that concluded on Dec. 31.

WPX Energy is an active developer and producer of oil, natural gas and gas liquids in resource-rich areas such as North Dakota’s Bakken Shale, Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale and Colorado’s Piceance Basin.

“We have a significant inventory of drilling opportunities in our existing acreage that we believe will allow us to continue to deliver solid results like double-digit production growth,” said Ralph Hill, chief executive officer.

“We’re also targeting a more balanced approach in our commodity mix. With that, we’re expecting approximately 37 percent of our 2012 revenues to come from oil and natural gas liquids,” Hill added.

Executives and guests of WPX Energy will celebrate the company’s new start as an independent, publicly traded company at the NYSE this morning when CEO Ralph Hill rings The Opening Bell.

Hill also is scheduled to appear on Bloomberg at approximately 10:45 a.m. Eastern this morning via a live interview from the NYSE trading floor.

WPX has total proved, probable and possible (3P) reserves of 15.9 trillion cubic feet equivalent as of year-end 2010; daily production of 1.3 billion cubic feet equivalent – including 14,800 barrels per day of oil and 26,800 barrels per day of natural gas liquids – as of October 2011; and more than 1.6 million net acres under lease.

WPX has its headquarters in Tulsa, Okla., and a regional office in Denver. Overall, the company employs more than 1,200 people. Its largest offices are in Tulsa, Denver, Parachute, Colo., and Gillette, Wyo.

Internationally, WPX has a 69 percent controlling interest in Apco Oil and Gas International(APAGF). International reserves and production are included in the company’s key operating statistics.

The CUSIP number for WPX common stock is 98212B 10 3. WPX is also included in the S&P 500 index.

Former parent Williams issued its own press release describing its new structure and prospects after spinning off its E&P assets

Williams has completed the process of separating the company’s businesses into two stand-alone, publicly traded corporations. The company’s former exploration and production business, WPX Energy, Inc., will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol “WPX.”

The separation process was completed with the Dec. 31 distribution of one share of WPX Energy common stock for every three shares of Williams common stock held by Williams shareholders.

Williams, including its assets held through Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ), is now an energy infrastructure company focused on connecting North America’s significant hydrocarbon resource plays to growing markets for natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and olefins. Williams’ operations span from the deepwater Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian oil sands.

“We’ve now fully executed on our plans to create two separate and strong companies, each with a clear focus,” said Alan Armstrong, Williams’ president and chief executive officer. “This effort has been all about unlocking value for shareholders and creating the best possible growth prospects for our businesses.

“Williams now has an intense focus on providing our customers with the reliable infrastructure services that will help them optimize the value of North America’s significant and growing resource plays.

“And we offer a clear focus for our investors – we are a high-dividend, high-growth energy infrastructure company with investment-grade credit ratings,” Armstrong said.

Williams in 2012 and Beyond – By the Numbers

Williams’ interstate gas pipeline and domestic midstream interests are largely held through its significant investment in Williams Partners L.P., one of the largest energy master limited partnerships. Williams owns the general-partner interest and a 73-percent limited-partner interest in Williams Partners.

Williams Partners’ three major interstate gas pipelines (Transco, Northwest Pipeline, Gulfstream) run 15,000 miles and deliver approximately 14 percent of the natural gas consumed in the United States. With a combined design capacity of more than 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), these pipelines transport enough natural gas in one day to serve the needs of more than 30 million homes. The partnership’s large-scale midstream business includes approximately 1,000 miles of natural gas liquid (NGL) transportation pipelines, and more than 10,000 miles of oil and gas gathering pipelines. The partnership’s midstream facilities have daily gas processing capacity of 6.6 Bcf of natural gas and NGL production of more than 200,000 barrels per day.

Williams also owns a growing Canadian midstream and domestic olefins production business. The company’s facilities in Canada process the off-gas created by the oil sands production into 14,000 barrels per day of an NGL/olefins mixture. Expansions to those facilities are underway, as well as construction of a new Canadian NGL pipeline. Williams’ Geismar facility in Louisiana currently produces 1.35 billion pounds of ethylene annually. It is also in the process of being expanded to further serve the petrochemical industry.

Williams’ corporate headquarters is in Tulsa, Okla., and the company has approximately 4,100 employees in the United States and Canada.

WPX Energy is trading at $18.40 having traded in a range of $17.01 to $23.42 as a when-issued stock.

 

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

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WPX Energy To Enter S&P 500

When WPX Energy(WPX)is spun off from The Williams Companies(WMB) on December 31 as we discussed previously, it will immediately join the S&P 500, replacing Compuware(CPWR).  Parent company The Williams Companies will remain in the index as well.  This continues a trend of large companies breaking into pieces large enough to themselves be constituents of the premier large cap index.

Disclosure: The author has no position in any stock mentioned.

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Ring In The New Year With WPX Energy

New Year’s Eve is one of those ‘big events’ that rarely lives up to its hype and often ends up pretty anti-climactic. Doesn’t bode well for this ensemble flick(actually, I am sure it will suck for a host of other reasons). The board of directors at

Tower for drilling horizontally into the Marce...

Williams Companies (WMB) believes they have found the solution for a great NYE though as the company recently approved plans to spin off WPX Energy, its E&P unit, on December 31st to shareholders as of December 14th. Surely a more exciting event than watching a big ball drop 77 feet, no? Well…maybe not.

The original proposal, similar to Sunoco’s execution of the SunCoke spinoff, called for an IPO of WPX Energy this year followed by a distribution of the remaining stake to shareholders in 2012. Alas, the equity markets markets didn’t behave and the weak IPO environment caused the company to shelve the IPO and to pursue a pure spinoff instead. Even though the parent will not be able to pay down debt with the IPO proceedings, it is still expecting to maintain its credit rating. For additional background information on the transaction, see our earlier post here.

WPX Energy owns and is developing various oil & gas assets throughout the United States in locations such as the Piceance Basin (Rockies), the Bakken Shale (North Dakota) and the Marcellus Shale (Pennsylvania). The company also has a 69% ownership stake in Apco Oil and Gas International (APAGF) which holds oil and gas concessions in Argentina and Colombia. Apco only represents a small portion (~5%) of its reserves though. Here is a snapshot of the company’s proven reserves (as of Dec 31, 2010):

Basin/Shale Estimated Net Proven Reserves
Bcfe % Proved Developed
Piceance Basin 2,927 53%
Bakken Shale 136 11%
Marcellus Shale 28 71%
Powder River Basin 348 75%
San Juan Basin 554 79%
Apco 190 60%
Other 290 72%
Total 4,473 59%

Currently, the Piceance basin represents the bulk of the company’s production, however I would expect that to change as the company has recently acquired significant chunks of acreage in the Bakken and Marcellus shales. I would expect those areas to grow significantly as they are expected to consume about 35% of the company’s 2011 drilling budget and 47% of 2012′s budget. While these shale assets are some of the more exciting energy projects in the US (you may have heard something about a shale ‘boom’) and a boon to the company, they are obviously not without risks.

For additional information on the company, both financial and asset-wise, check out its Form 10. The filing lists the usual list of reasons for the spin, including increased management focus and competition for assets. One of the differences between the two companies will be dividend payments. While the parent company, WMB, plans on growing its dividends by 10-15%, WPX does not intend to pay anything out. Not a surprising decision given the constant capital intensity of the E&P business, but it might disappoint some investors.

Shareholders of Williams will receive one share of WPX Energy for every 3 shares owned of WMB and the new company will trade on the NYSE under the ticker ‘WPX’. Given the nature (and recent popularity) of the business, it should be relatively easy to put together a list of comparable companies for a relative valuation comparison. We will keep you updated.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in any stock mentioned.

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Williams Has A Spin In Its Pipeline

The energy and E&P business has been no stranger to spinoffs and over the past few years numerous companies have pursued this strategy to unlock shareholder value. So it was no big surprise when in February Williams Companies (WMB) announced plans to split itself into two. To be fair, another reason the announcement wasn’t much of a surprise is that the company launched a strategic review looking at its options, including a spinoff, just three years ago. Those plans ultimately got shelved though as oil prices plunged and the credit markets froze up.

In addition to its stake in Williams Partners (WPZ), Williams Companies will focus on infrastructure and pipelines which – I like the way they put it – “optimize and connect North America’s abundant natural resources to premium markets”. The new company, WPX Energy, will operate as a diversified E&P company. One of the reasons for the move is that with vastly different risk profiles, the two companies can attract distinctive investor bases and allow investors to select their exposure.

The spinoff is expected to take place in two stages with WPX first offering up to 20% of its shares in an IPO during Q3 2011 and the rest of the company being spun out to shareholders in 2012. The process is moving along smoothly as WPX Energy recently filed its registration statement with the SEC and a copy of its S-1 can be found here. Beginning in June, Williams will start paying out fatter dividends with an expected initial 60% increase followed by another 10-15% divvy jump next year. The company plans to use the booty from the IPO (an expected $750m) in order to pay down its sizable debt balance.

Here is Dan Loeb’s, manager of hedge fund Third Point, opinion on Williams (taken from his most recent investor letter):

The Williams Companies is a diversified energy company with two primary segments: energy exploration and pipelines. It had long been seen as an attractive candidate for a spin‐off restructuring. In 2005, the Company had spun out a portion of its pipeline business into a publicly traded MLP (Williams Partners LP – WPZ) but had never moved seriously to split the two businesses completely. However, in the Fourth Quarter of 2010, two important “tells” suggested to us that the situation had changed. First, the  Company’s long time CEO, who had been opposed to pursuing a spin‐out, announced his retirement.

Second, in November the Company announced the acquisition of some attractive acreage in the Bakken Shale, an acquisition that we believed was at least partly motivated by a desire to improve the standalone investment appeal of its E&P business segment. We invested around this time, and were rewarded in February when the Company announced it would split the Company via an initial IPO of the E&P business (selling 19% of that business to the public) in the second half of 2011 and then execute a full spin of the remaining 81% to shareholders in early 2012.

Since our initial investment, prospects for the company and its valuation have continued to improve due to factors including: 1) the recent IPO of Kinder Morgan, a similarly positioned company, which highlighted the value of General Partnership (GP) interests in MLPs, 2) continued execution by the WMB management team on additional midstream investments, and 3) improved liquefied natural gas prices due to strong chemical demand and higher oil prices. We believe that the shares remain significantly undervalued and have added to the position.

Loeb is also long El Paso (EP) whose shares soared upon announcement of a strategic review. Williams shares popped over 10% upon the announcement and it really makes you wonder why the market continues to discount these companies on a ‘sum of the parts’ basis. Similar spins are in the proverbial pipeline and previous moves like this have fared decently, including Questar’s (STR) spin of QEP Resources (QEP). We will keep you updated as more info is released.

Disclosure: Author is currently long shares of El Paso (EP).

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