Post Holdings To Join S&P MidCap 400 Index

S&P announced that, as of the close of trading on February 6, Post Holdings(POST) will join its former parent, Ralcorp(RAH) in the S&P MidCap 400 Index. Post will replace Comstock Resources(CRK) which will be moving to the smallcap index. Post will be distributed to shareholders of Ralcorp at the close of trading on February 3.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

As Post Begins Trading When Issued,No Free Toy In This Cereal Box

Post Cereals(POST) began trading today on a when issued basis.  Currently, it’s settled in around $26.50 with a range of $22.75 to $27.50.  But what is it actually worth?

One share of Post stock will be distributed on February 3 to for every 2 shares owned of Ralcorp(RAH) as of January 30, so those who buy Ralcorp today are still getting the spin. The IRS has ruled that the distribution will be tax-free to shareholders.

The company will distribute approximately 27.6 million shares and keep up to 6.9 million shares for itself.  These 34.5 million shares represent a market cap of $914 million at $26.50 per share. Post will be quite leveraged, as Ralcorp is burdening it with $775 million in new bonds, and pulling $900 million in cash out of the business, which Ralcorp will use to retire its own debt and buy back stock.

Last week, Ralcorp released additional financial information and projections regarding Post. The company projects that in 2012, it will generate $205 million to $225 million of what the company calls “Adjusted EBITDA” we view this as a poor measure of the company’s health given the heavy debt load it will face.  In addition, this number does not include significant expenses associated with becoming a stand alone public company, and it assumes sales growth that may be unrealistic. We believe the company’s net income will be somewhere in the $20-$40 million range for the year, making it difficult to justify purchasing at the current price. If the company can actually increase share and approach the top end of our range, we might expect strong profit growth if the company can begin to pay down debt, but for now, we think this is to be avoided at the current price.  Ralcorp, with its improved balance sheet, may be a better choice, but we’ll leave that discussion for a future post.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned.

 

Ralcorp Sets Dates, Ratio For Post Spin

Ralcorp’s(RAH) spinoff of Post(POST) is finally coming into view.  Ralcorp announcedthis morning that Post

The Post Cereals logo.

shares will be distributed on February 3 to Ralcorp shareholders of record as of January 30.  Investors will receive 1 Post share for every 2 shares of Ralcorp they own.  Approximately 34.5 million Post shares will be outstanding following the distribution.  Post shares are expected to begin trading on a when-issued basis on January 26. The spinoff reverses Ralcorp’s acquisition of Post just four years ago. As part of the transaction, Ralcorp has leveraged Post significantly, leaving the company under a significant debt load which will either sink it or create an opportunity for big gains in deleveraging, but in either event, may hinder its ability to promote its strong branded offerings.

Disclosure: Author holds no position in any stock mentioned

Ralcorp Buys Post, 4 Years Later Spins It Off, Forgets To Admit Failure

Our friends over at My Investing Notebook recently dug up Ralcorp’s(RAH) comments from its 2007 acquisition of Post Cereals, and compared them to its comments regarding this month’s spin off of Post(POST) as an independent company. We were salivating to buy the stock based on the mouth-watering descriptions of future profits to be had as a result of… both transactions. Ralcorp was, and is, primarily a private label manufacturer.  Its failure to capitalize on and support the branded Post cereals is probably not surprising, but it would be nice if management acknowledged its failure as it paints its rosy picture of the future. Many spinoffs do have their roots in previous acquisitions, though usually  a longer period of time elapses before the acquirer throws in the towel.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

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Ralcorp Announces A Few More Details On Post Spinoff

It’s been nearly 6 months since Ralcorp(RAH) announced plans to spin off Post Holdings and not much has changed.  The interest that had been expressed by Conagra(CAG) never materialized into a transaction as Ralcorp management

Ralcorp

continued to reject buyout offers. Today, the company took the mildly unusual step of issuing a press release noting that it has amended its Form 10.  The release noted that the new company, which will trade on the NYSE under the ticker POST, will be distributed around the end of January 2012.  Also noted was that Ralcorp will extract $900 million in cash from Post prior to the spinoff, funded by debt which will stay with Post. In July, we had noted that this was expected to be in the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range, so this may imply that Post was unable to borrow the full amount anticipated. Ralcorp plans to use the cash to reduce debt, make acquisitions, and buyback stock.  Ralcorp will also retain up to 20% of Post.

Today’s filing shows that Post lost $368.9 million in 2011 on a pro-forma basis, but that includes a $503.5 million non-cash charge for impaired goodwill, writing down the cost of Ralcorp’s purchase of Post.  It would seem that the company has sufficient cash flow to both service and pay down debt.  At the right price, investors may be able to take advantage of a consistently profitable business with results improving as it incrementally deleverages.

Disclosure: The author holds no position in any stock mentioned

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Ralcorp Posts Another Hit In Its Serial Spin Parade

The Post Cereals logo.

Image via Wikipedia

Ending a short-lived marriage, Ralcorp(RAH) announced plans today to spin off its Post Cereals business as an independent company.  The company hopes to complete the spinoff in the next 4 to 6 months.  Ralcorp. which itself was spun out of Ralston Purina in 1994, purchased the Post Brands from Kraft(KFT) in August 2008. Ralcorp, which will continue to be a leading producer of private brand foods will improve its balance sheet by issuing $1.1-$1.2Billion in new debt for Post and keeping the cash for itself. Post Brands will have to sell a lot of Fruity Pebbles and Honey Bunches Of Oats to service that debt. Ralcorp’s chairman will move to Post, though the company is still searching for a CEO to lead the new company.

Ralcorp has been pursued for some time by Conagra(CAG). It will be interesting to see Conagra’s response to today’s news.

Disclosure: The author owns no position in any stock mentioned

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